IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (431) Nephele / UCAC4 338-122308 event on 2023 Jul 17, 06:57 UT Visible from South America, New Zealand Summary ------- On 2023 Jul 17 UT, the 91.5 km diameter asteroid (431) Nephele will occult a 11.7 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a path across South America, New Zealand. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.70 mag to 13.11 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 10.430 seconds. This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 100 * date and approx. time of event: 2023 Jul 17, 06:46 - 2023 Jul 17, 07:09 * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2460142.79016950 * magnitude of target star: 11.67 * magnitude drop [mag]: 1.70 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 10.430 * Moon: 0 % sunlit, 160° distance * Sun: 157° distance * rough path description: South America, New Zealand The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 99 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.07 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 4.8 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- 0.032, +/- 0.003) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): (0.032", 0.003", 91°) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 8.7701 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of UCAC4 338-122308 by 431 Nephele on 2023 Jul 17 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude 128 0 0 .. .. .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. -25 44 29 .. .. .. -25 48 28 .... 129 0 0 -25 40 33 7 9 3.0 1 115 19 -25 11 14 -26 9 59 -25 7 17 -26 13 58 .... 130 0 0 -26 5 56 7 9 2.7 2 114 18 -25 36 37 -26 35 21 -25 32 40 -26 39 20 0.37 131 0 0 -26 31 9 7 9 2.1 3 114 17 -26 1 51 -27 0 33 -25 57 54 -27 4 32 0.38 132 0 0 -26 56 13 7 9 1.3 4 113 16 -26 26 56 -27 25 36 -26 22 59 -27 29 35 0.38 133 0 0 -27 21 6 7 9 0.2 5 113 15 -26 51 50 -27 50 29 -26 47 54 -27 54 27 0.38 134 0 0 -27 45 49 7 8 59.0 6 112 14 -27 16 34 -28 15 10 -27 12 38 -28 19 8 0.38 135 0 0 -28 10 21 7 8 57.5 7 112 13 -27 41 7 -28 39 41 -27 37 11 -28 43 39 0.38 136 0 0 -28 34 40 7 8 55.8 8 112 12 -28 5 28 -29 3 59 -28 1 32 -29 7 57 0.39 137 0 0 -28 58 48 7 8 53.9 9 111 12 -28 29 37 -29 28 6 -28 25 41 -29 32 4 0.39 138 0 0 -29 22 44 7 8 51.8 10 111 11 -28 53 34 -29 52 0 -28 49 38 -29 55 57 0.39 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-24 44 33 -25 43 9 -24 40 37 -25 47 7 0.41 - 49 0 0 -24 48 42 6 47 31.1 21 254 -43 -24 19 27 -25 18 3 -24 15 30 -25 22 1 0.41 - 48 0 0 -24 23 29 6 47 26.3 20 254 -42 -23 54 14 -24 52 50 -23 50 17 -24 56 48 0.41 - 47 0 0 -23 58 9 6 47 21.7 19 253 -41 -23 28 54 -24 27 31 -23 24 58 -24 31 29 0.41 - 46 0 0 -23 32 44 6 47 17.4 18 253 -40 -23 3 29 -24 2 6 -22 59 33 -24 6 4 0.41 - 45 0 0 -23 7 15 6 47 13.2 17 252 -39 -22 37 59 -23 36 36 -22 34 3 -23 40 34 0.41 - 44 0 0 -22 41 40 6 47 9.3 16 252 -38 -22 12 25 -23 11 2 -22 8 29 -23 15 0 0.41 - 43 0 0 -22 16 2 6 47 5.5 15 251 -37 -21 46 47 -22 45 23 -21 42 51 -22 49 21 0.41 - 42 0 0 -21 50 21 6 47 2.0 14 251 -36 -21 21 6 -22 19 41 -21 17 10 -22 23 39 0.41 - 41 0 0 -21 24 36 6 46 58.7 13 251 -35 -20 55 23 -21 53 57 -20 51 27 -21 57 55 0.42 - 40 0 0 -20 58 50 6 46 55.7 12 250 -34 -20 29 37 -21 28 10 -20 25 41 -21 32 8 0.42 - 39 0 0 -20 33 3 6 46 52.9 11 250 -33 -20 3 51 -21 2 22 -19 59 55 -21 6 20 0.42 - 38 0 0 -20 7 15 6 46 50.3 10 250 -32 -19 38 3 -20 36 33 -19 34 7 -20 40 31 0.42 - 37 0 0 -19 41 27 6 46 47.9 9 249 -31 -19 12 16 -20 10 44 -19 8 20 -20 14 42 0.43 - 36 0 0 -19 15 39 6 46 45.8 8 249 -30 -18 46 29 -19 44 56 -18 42 34 -19 48 53 0.43 - 35 0 0 -18 49 53 6 46 43.9 7 248 -29 -18 20 44 -19 19 8 -18 16 49 -19 23 6 0.44 - 34 0 0 -18 24 9 6 46 42.3 6 248 -28 -17 55 1 -18 53 23 -17 51 6 -18 57 20 0.45 - 33 0 0 -17 58 27 6 46 41.0 5 248 -27 -17 29 21 -18 27 40 -17 25 26 -18 31 37 0.46 - 32 0 0 -17 32 49 6 46 39.9 4 248 -26 -17 3 44 -18 2 0 -16 59 49 -18 5 57 0.48 - 31 0 0 -17 7 14 6 46 39.0 3 247 -25 -16 38 11 -17 36 24 -16 34 16 -17 40 21 0.51 - 30 0 0 -16 41 45 6 46 38.4 2 247 -24 -16 12 42 -17 10 53 -16 8 48 -17 14 50 0.58 - 29 0 0 -16 16 20 6 46 38.1 1 247 -23 -15 47 20 -16 45 27 -15 43 25 -16 49 23 0.85 Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs Prediction of 2023 May 29.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: UCAC4 338-122308 * constellation : Sagittarius * BCRS position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 18 04 21.7899 DE: -22 34 32.459 * GCRS Astrometric position with proper motion and parallax to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 18 04 21.7899 DE: -22 34 32.459 * position source: Gaia DR3 * standard error: RA,DE [mas]: (0.200,0.100) * V mag [mag]: 11.7 * Diameter [mas]: 0.00 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (431) Nephele asteroid class: approx. diameter [km]: 92 approx. diameter ["]: 0.070 distance from Earth [AU]: 1.81380 asteroid position offset in RA [mas]: 0 asteroid position offset in DE [mas]: 0 * orbital information: orbit source: JPL#75 date of fit: 2023 Apr 24 source of used astrometry: MPC, JPL number of used observations: 0 number of rejected observations: 0 time covered by the observations: 1800 Jan 01 - 1800 Jan 01 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.032", 0.003", 91.051° remarks: * orbital elements for (431)Nephele : Mean anomaly = 319.6040855540 deg Arg. of pericenter = 217.4123946652 deg Long. of node = 117.1823136324 deg Inclination = 1.8279370523 deg Eccentricity = 0.1705678839 Semimajor axis = 3.1379694725 AU Perihelion dist = 2.6027326597 AU Mag: H = 9.02, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 60142.29006945 TDT (2023 Jul 17.2901) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- JPL#752023Apr24,10.43,2023,7,17,6.964068,0.033603,-0.377839,-4.930623,-0.438541,0.002190,-0.000057,0.000001,0.000000 -127.8588,-22.5748,77.08,21.22,False UCAC4 338-122308,18.07271942,-22.5756830,0.00,11.67,0.00,0.0,0,,18.09668447,-22.5747944,1.69,0.00,0,0,0 431,Nephele,13.11,91.5,1.8138,0,0,-1.725,-2.13,,4.6,0 0,319.5527,2023,7,17,217.4124,117.1823,1.8279,0.17057,3.13797,2.60273,9.02,5.0,0.15 1.067,0.0323,0.0032,91,0.0047,Known errors,-1.00,-1,-1,-1 20230717_122308,60092.98 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2023 May 28, 23:36 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 stevepr@acm.org