IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (431) Nephele / UCAC4 338-128828 event on 2023 Jul 05, 13:49 UT Visible from Japan, China Summary ------- On 2023 Jul 05 UT, the 91.5 km diameter asteroid (431) Nephele will occult a 12.0 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a path across Japan, China. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.30 mag to 12.87 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.750 seconds. This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 100 * date and approx. time of event: 2023 Jul 05, 13:43 - 2023 Jul 05, 13:56 * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2460131.07627400 * magnitude of target star: 11.96 * magnitude drop [mag]: 1.30 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 8.750 * Moon: 93 % sunlit, 40° distance * Sun: 170° distance * rough path description: Japan, China The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 150 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.06 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 4.1 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- 0.033, +/- 0.003) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): (0.033", 0.003", 90°) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 10.4527 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of UCAC4 338-128828 by 431 Nephele on 2023 Jul 5 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude 74 0 0 .. .. .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 42 31 38 .. .. .. 42 25 45 .... 75 0 0 42 52 44 13 56 1.3 1 122 6 43 41 28 42 5 2 43 47 36 41 59 10 .... 76 0 0 42 26 12 13 56 1.0 2 123 6 43 14 41 41 38 44 43 20 47 41 32 53 -0.82 77 0 0 41 59 58 13 56 0.5 3 123 5 42 48 12 41 12 44 42 54 17 41 6 55 -1.00 78 0 0 41 34 3 13 55 59.8 3 124 4 42 22 3 40 47 3 42 28 6 40 41 16 -1.08 79 0 0 41 8 29 13 55 58.8 4 125 3 41 56 14 40 21 43 42 2 15 40 15 57 -1.13 80 0 0 40 43 16 13 55 57.6 5 125 2 41 30 47 39 56 43 41 36 46 39 51 0 -1.17 81 0 0 40 18 25 13 55 56.2 6 126 1 41 5 42 39 32 5 41 11 39 39 26 23 -1.19 82 0 0 39 53 55 13 55 54.5 7 127 0 40 40 58 39 7 49 40 46 53 39 2 8 -1.21 83 0 0 39 29 49 13 55 52.7 8 127 0 40 16 38 38 43 55 40 22 31 38 38 16 -1.22 84 0 0 39 6 6 13 55 50.6 8 128 -1 39 52 41 38 20 25 39 58 33 38 14 48 -1.23 85 0 0 38 42 47 13 55 48.3 9 129 -2 39 29 9 37 57 19 39 34 59 37 51 43 -1.24 86 0 0 38 19 53 13 55 45.7 10 129 -3 39 6 1 37 34 37 39 11 49 37 29 3 -1.25 87 0 0 37 57 23 13 55 43.0 11 130 -4 38 43 19 37 12 20 38 49 6 37 6 47 -1.25 88 0 0 37 35 20 13 55 40.0 12 131 -5 38 21 2 36 50 29 38 26 47 36 44 58 -1.26 89 0 0 37 13 43 13 55 36.8 13 131 -6 37 59 13 36 29 4 38 4 56 36 23 34 -1.26 90 0 0 36 52 33 13 55 33.4 13 132 -6 37 37 50 36 8 6 37 43 32 36 2 37 -1.27 91 0 0 36 31 50 13 55 29.8 14 133 -7 37 16 55 35 47 34 37 22 35 35 42 7 -1.27 92 0 0 36 11 34 13 55 26.0 15 133 -8 36 56 28 35 27 30 37 2 7 35 22 4 -1.27 93 0 0 35 51 47 13 55 22.0 16 134 -9 36 36 29 35 7 53 36 42 6 35 2 29 -1.28 94 0 0 35 32 28 13 55 17.8 17 135 -10 36 16 58 34 48 45 36 22 34 34 43 22 -1.28 95 0 0 35 13 37 13 55 13.4 18 135 -11 35 57 57 34 30 5 36 3 31 34 24 43 -1.28 96 0 0 34 55 16 13 55 8.8 18 136 -11 35 39 24 34 11 54 35 44 57 34 6 33 -1.28 97 0 0 34 37 23 13 55 4.0 19 137 -12 35 21 22 33 54 11 35 26 53 33 48 52 -1.28 98 0 0 34 20 1 13 54 59.0 20 137 -13 35 3 49 33 36 58 35 9 19 33 31 40 -1.28 99 0 0 34 3 8 13 54 53.8 21 138 -14 34 46 46 33 20 15 34 52 15 33 14 58 -1.29 100 0 0 33 46 45 13 54 48.5 21 139 -15 34 30 14 33 4 2 34 35 42 32 58 46 -1.29 101 0 0 33 30 53 13 54 43.0 22 139 -15 34 14 12 32 48 18 34 19 39 32 43 3 -1.29 102 0 0 33 15 31 13 54 37.3 23 140 -16 33 58 41 32 33 5 34 4 7 32 27 51 -1.29 103 0 0 33 0 40 13 54 31.4 23 141 -17 33 43 42 32 18 22 33 49 6 32 13 9 -1.29 104 0 0 32 46 20 13 54 25.4 24 142 -18 33 29 13 32 4 10 33 34 37 31 58 58 -1.29 105 0 0 32 32 32 13 54 19.2 25 142 -19 33 15 16 31 50 29 33 20 39 31 45 18 -1.29 106 0 0 32 19 14 13 54 12.9 26 143 -19 33 1 51 31 37 19 33 7 12 31 32 9 -1.29 107 0 0 32 6 28 13 54 6.4 26 144 -20 32 48 57 31 24 40 32 54 18 31 19 31 -1.29 108 0 0 31 54 13 13 53 59.8 27 145 -21 32 36 35 31 12 32 32 41 55 31 7 23 -1.29 109 0 0 31 42 30 13 53 53.0 27 145 -21 32 24 45 31 0 55 32 30 4 30 55 48 -1.29 110 0 0 31 31 18 13 53 46.1 28 146 -22 32 13 28 30 49 50 32 18 45 30 44 43 -1.29 111 0 0 31 20 39 13 53 39.1 29 147 -23 32 2 42 30 39 17 32 7 59 30 34 10 -1.29 112 0 0 31 10 32 13 53 31.9 29 148 -24 31 52 29 30 29 15 31 57 45 30 24 10 -1.29 113 0 0 31 0 57 13 53 24.6 30 149 -24 31 42 48 30 19 45 31 48 3 30 14 40 -1.29 114 0 0 30 51 54 13 53 17.2 30 150 -25 31 33 40 30 10 47 31 38 54 30 5 43 -1.29 115 0 0 30 43 23 13 53 9.7 31 151 -25 31 25 4 30 2 21 31 30 18 29 57 17 -1.29 116 0 0 30 35 24 13 53 2.0 31 151 -26 31 17 1 29 54 27 31 22 14 29 49 24 -1.29 117 0 0 30 27 58 13 52 54.3 32 152 -27 31 9 30 29 47 5 31 14 43 29 42 2 -1.29 118 0 0 30 21 4 13 52 46.4 32 153 -27 31 2 32 29 40 15 31 7 45 29 35 13 -1.29 119 0 0 30 14 43 13 52 38.5 33 154 -28 30 56 7 29 33 57 31 1 19 29 28 56 -1.29 120 0 0 30 8 54 13 52 30.4 33 155 -28 30 50 15 29 28 12 30 55 26 29 23 11 -1.29 121 0 0 30 3 38 13 52 22.3 34 156 -29 30 44 56 29 22 59 30 50 7 29 17 58 -1.29 122 0 0 29 58 54 13 52 14.1 34 157 -29 30 40 9 29 18 18 30 45 20 29 13 17 -1.29 123 0 0 29 54 43 13 52 5.8 35 158 -30 30 35 55 29 14 9 30 41 6 29 9 9 -1.29 124 0 0 29 51 5 13 51 57.5 35 159 -30 30 32 15 29 10 32 30 37 25 29 5 32 -1.30 125 0 0 29 47 59 13 51 49.0 35 160 -31 30 29 7 29 7 28 30 34 17 29 2 29 -1.30 126 0 0 29 45 25 13 51 40.5 36 161 -31 30 26 32 29 4 57 30 31 42 28 59 57 -1.30 127 0 0 29 43 25 13 51 32.0 36 162 -32 30 24 30 29 2 57 30 29 40 28 57 58 -1.30 128 0 0 29 41 57 13 51 23.4 36 163 -32 30 23 1 29 1 30 30 28 10 28 56 31 -1.30 129 0 0 29 41 1 13 51 14.7 36 164 -33 30 22 5 29 0 35 30 27 14 28 55 36 -1.30 130 0 0 29 40 39 13 51 6.0 37 165 -33 30 21 42 29 0 13 30 26 51 28 55 14 -1.30 131 0 0 29 40 49 13 50 57.2 37 166 -33 30 21 52 29 0 23 30 27 1 28 55 24 -1.30 132 0 0 29 41 31 13 50 48.4 37 168 -34 30 22 35 29 1 5 30 27 44 28 56 6 -1.30 133 0 0 29 42 46 13 50 39.6 37 169 -34 30 23 50 29 2 19 30 28 59 28 57 20 -1.30 134 0 0 29 44 33 13 50 30.7 37 170 -34 30 25 38 29 4 6 30 30 47 28 59 7 -1.30 135 0 0 29 46 53 13 50 21.9 37 171 -35 30 27 59 29 6 25 30 33 8 29 1 25 -1.30 136 0 0 29 49 45 13 50 13.0 37 172 -35 30 30 53 29 9 16 30 36 2 29 4 16 -1.30 137 0 0 29 53 10 13 50 4.1 38 173 -35 30 34 19 29 12 39 30 39 29 29 7 39 -1.30 138 0 0 29 57 7 13 49 55.1 38 174 -35 30 38 18 29 16 34 30 43 29 29 11 34 -1.30 139 0 0 30 1 37 13 49 46.2 38 175 -35 30 42 50 29 21 1 30 48 1 29 16 1 -1.30 140 0 0 30 6 38 13 49 37.3 38 176 -36 30 47 55 29 26 0 30 53 5 29 20 59 -1.30 141 0 0 30 12 12 13 49 28.4 37 178 -36 30 53 32 29 31 31 30 58 43 29 26 30 -1.30 142 0 0 30 18 19 13 49 19.5 37 179 -36 30 59 42 29 37 35 31 4 53 29 32 33 -1.30 143 0 0 30 24 57 13 49 10.6 37 180 -36 31 6 23 29 44 10 31 11 35 29 39 8 -1.30 144 0 0 30 32 7 13 49 1.7 37 181 -36 31 13 37 29 51 16 31 18 50 29 46 14 -1.30 145 0 0 30 39 49 13 48 52.9 37 182 -36 31 21 23 29 58 54 31 26 37 29 53 51 -1.30 146 0 0 30 48 3 13 48 44.0 37 183 -36 31 29 42 30 7 4 31 34 56 30 2 0 -1.30 147 0 0 30 56 49 13 48 35.3 37 184 -36 31 38 33 30 15 45 31 43 47 30 10 41 -1.30 148 0 0 31 6 6 13 48 26.5 36 185 -36 31 47 55 30 24 57 31 53 10 30 19 53 -1.31 149 0 0 31 15 55 13 48 17.8 36 186 -36 31 57 49 30 34 41 32 3 5 30 29 36 -1.31 150 0 0 31 26 16 13 48 9.2 36 188 -36 32 8 16 30 44 56 32 13 32 30 39 50 -1.31 151 0 0 31 37 7 13 48 0.6 36 189 -36 32 19 13 30 55 42 32 24 30 30 50 36 -1.31 152 0 0 31 48 30 13 47 52.0 35 190 -36 32 30 42 31 6 59 32 36 0 31 1 52 -1.31 153 0 0 32 0 24 13 47 43.6 35 191 -35 32 42 43 31 18 46 32 48 2 31 13 39 -1.31 154 0 0 32 12 49 13 47 35.1 35 192 -35 32 55 15 31 31 5 33 0 35 31 25 56 -1.31 155 0 0 32 25 45 13 47 26.8 34 193 -35 33 8 18 31 43 53 33 13 38 31 38 44 -1.31 156 0 0 32 39 11 13 47 18.6 34 194 -35 33 21 51 31 57 12 33 27 13 31 52 2 -1.31 157 0 0 32 53 7 13 47 10.4 33 195 -34 33 35 56 32 11 1 33 41 18 32 5 50 -1.31 158 0 0 33 7 34 13 47 2.3 33 196 -34 33 50 31 32 25 20 33 55 54 32 20 8 -1.31 159 0 0 33 22 31 13 46 54.3 32 197 -34 34 5 36 32 40 9 34 11 1 32 34 56 -1.32 160 0 0 33 37 58 13 46 46.4 32 198 -33 34 21 11 32 55 28 34 26 37 32 50 13 -1.32 161 0 0 33 53 54 13 46 38.6 31 199 -33 34 37 16 33 11 15 34 42 44 33 6 0 -1.32 162 0 0 34 10 19 13 46 31.0 31 200 -33 34 53 51 33 27 32 34 59 20 33 22 16 -1.32 163 0 0 34 27 14 13 46 23.4 30 201 -32 35 10 56 33 44 18 35 16 25 33 39 0 -1.32 164 0 0 34 44 38 13 46 16.0 30 202 -32 35 28 29 34 1 32 35 34 0 33 56 13 -1.32 165 0 0 35 2 30 13 46 8.6 29 202 -31 35 46 31 34 19 14 35 52 3 34 13 54 -1.32 166 0 0 35 20 50 13 46 1.4 29 203 -31 36 5 2 34 37 25 36 10 35 34 32 4 -1.32 167 0 0 35 39 38 13 45 54.4 28 204 -31 36 24 1 34 56 3 36 29 36 34 50 40 -1.32 168 0 0 35 58 54 13 45 47.5 27 205 -30 36 43 28 35 15 8 36 49 4 35 9 44 -1.32 169 0 0 36 18 37 13 45 40.7 27 206 -30 37 3 22 35 34 40 37 9 0 35 29 16 -1.33 170 0 0 36 38 47 13 45 34.0 26 207 -29 37 23 44 35 54 39 37 29 23 35 49 13 -1.33 171 0 0 36 59 23 13 45 27.6 26 208 -28 37 44 32 36 15 5 37 50 12 36 9 37 -1.33 172 0 0 37 20 26 13 45 21.2 25 209 -28 38 5 46 36 35 56 38 11 29 36 30 27 -1.33 173 0 0 37 41 54 13 45 15.1 24 209 -27 38 27 27 36 57 12 38 33 11 36 51 42 -1.33 174 0 0 38 3 47 13 45 9.1 23 210 -27 38 49 33 37 18 54 38 55 18 37 13 22 -1.33 175 0 0 38 26 5 13 45 3.2 23 211 -26 39 12 4 37 41 0 39 17 50 37 35 27 -1.33 176 0 0 38 48 48 13 44 57.6 22 212 -25 39 34 59 38 3 30 39 40 47 37 57 55 -1.33 177 0 0 39 11 54 13 44 52.1 21 213 -25 39 58 18 38 26 23 40 4 8 38 20 47 -1.33 178 0 0 39 35 23 13 44 46.8 21 213 -24 40 22 0 38 49 40 40 27 52 38 44 2 -1.34 179 0 0 39 59 14 13 44 41.7 20 214 -24 40 46 6 39 13 19 40 51 59 39 7 40 -1.34 180 0 0 40 23 28 13 44 36.7 19 215 -23 41 10 33 39 37 20 41 16 29 39 31 39 -1.34 -179 0 0 40 48 3 13 44 32.0 18 216 -22 41 35 22 40 1 41 41 41 19 39 55 59 -1.34 -178 0 0 41 12 59 13 44 27.4 18 216 -21 42 0 32 40 26 24 42 6 31 40 20 40 -1.34 -177 0 0 41 38 14 13 44 23.1 17 217 -21 42 26 1 40 51 26 42 32 2 40 45 41 -1.34 -176 0 0 42 3 49 13 44 18.9 16 218 -20 42 51 51 41 16 48 42 57 53 41 11 1 -1.34 -175 0 0 42 29 43 13 44 14.9 15 219 -19 43 17 58 41 42 28 43 24 3 41 36 39 -1.35 -174 0 0 42 55 54 13 44 11.2 14 219 -19 43 44 24 42 8 25 43 50 31 42 2 35 -1.35 -173 0 0 43 22 22 13 44 7.6 14 220 -18 44 11 7 42 34 40 44 17 15 42 28 48 -1.35 -172 0 0 43 49 7 13 44 4.3 13 221 -17 44 38 6 43 1 11 44 44 16 42 55 17 -1.35 -171 0 0 44 16 7 13 44 1.2 12 222 -16 45 5 21 43 27 57 45 11 33 43 22 2 -1.35 -170 0 0 44 43 21 13 43 58.3 11 222 -16 45 32 49 43 54 58 45 39 4 43 49 1 -1.35 -169 0 0 45 10 49 13 43 55.5 10 223 -15 46 0 32 44 22 12 46 6 48 44 16 14 -1.36 -168 0 0 45 38 30 13 43 53.0 10 224 -14 46 28 27 44 49 39 46 34 45 44 43 39 -1.36 -167 0 0 46 6 22 13 43 50.8 9 225 -13 46 56 34 45 17 18 47 2 53 45 11 16 -1.36 -166 0 0 46 34 25 13 43 48.7 8 225 -12 47 24 51 45 45 7 47 31 13 45 39 4 -1.37 -165 0 0 47 2 38 13 43 46.8 7 226 -12 47 53 18 46 13 7 47 59 41 46 7 2 -1.37 -164 0 0 47 30 59 13 43 45.2 6 227 -11 48 21 54 46 41 15 48 28 19 46 35 9 -1.37 -163 0 0 47 59 28 13 43 43.7 5 228 -10 48 50 37 47 9 32 48 57 4 47 3 23 -1.38 -162 0 0 48 28 4 13 43 42.5 5 228 -9 49 19 26 47 37 55 49 25 55 47 31 45 -1.39 -161 0 0 48 56 45 13 43 41.4 4 229 -8 49 48 21 48 6 23 49 54 51 48 0 12 -1.40 -160 0 0 49 25 31 13 43 40.6 3 230 -8 50 17 20 48 34 57 50 23 52 48 28 44 -1.42 -159 0 0 49 54 20 13 43 40.0 2 231 -7 50 46 22 49 3 34 50 52 56 48 57 20 -1.45 -158 0 0 50 23 12 13 43 39.6 1 231 -6 51 15 26 49 32 14 51 22 1 49 25 59 -1.51 -157 0 0 50 52 4 13 43 39.3 1 232 -5 51 44 30 50 0 55 51 51 7 49 54 38 -1.72 -156 0 0 .. .. .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 50 29 37 .. .. .. 50 23 19 .... Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs Prediction of 2023 May 14.2 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: UCAC4 338-128828 * constellation : Sagittarius * BCRS position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 18 13 25.1938 DE: -22 24 17.024 * GCRS Astrometric position with proper motion and parallax to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 18 13 25.1938 DE: -22 24 17.024 * position source: Gaia DR3 * standard error: RA,DE [mas]: (0.100,0.100) * V mag [mag]: 12.0 * Diameter [mas]: 0.00 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (431) Nephele asteroid class: approx. diameter [km]: 92 approx. diameter ["]: 0.071 distance from Earth [AU]: 1.78670 asteroid position offset in RA [mas]: 0 asteroid position offset in DE [mas]: 0 * orbital information: orbit source: JPL#75 date of fit: 2023 Apr 24 source of used astrometry: MPC, JPL number of used observations: 0 number of rejected observations: 0 time covered by the observations: 1800 Jan 01 - 1800 Jan 01 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.033", 0.003", 90.122° remarks: * orbital elements for (431)Nephele : Mean anomaly = 317.5306531252 deg Arg. of pericenter = 217.4083993429 deg Long. of node = 117.1823586926 deg Inclination = 1.8279329586 deg Eccentricity = 0.1705723466 Semimajor axis = 3.1380096024 AU Perihelion dist = 2.6027519410 AU Mag: H = 9.02, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 60130.57618055 TDT (2023 Jul 05.5762) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- JPL#752023Apr24,8.75,2023,7,5,13.830576,-0.066261,0.788811,-5.879048,-0.494384,0.000930,-0.000067,0.000001,0.000000 142.9529,-22.3986,-26.30,22.77,False UCAC4 338-128828,18.22366494,-22.4047290,0.00,11.96,0.00,0.0,0,,18.24758109,-22.3986038,1.30,0.00,0,0,0 431,Nephele,12.87,91.5,1.7867,0,0,-2.086,-2.44,,4.6,0 0,317.4285,2023,7,5,217.4084,117.1824,1.8279,0.17057,3.13801,2.60275,9.04,5.0,0.15 1.062,0.0333,0.0033,90,0.0044,Known errors,-1.00,-1,-1,-1 20230705_128828,60078.17 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2023 May 14, 03:58 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 stevepr@acm.org