IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (1054) Forsytia / UCAC4 404-060982 event on 2023 Mar 11, 10:52 UT Visible from W Canada Summary ------- On 2023 Mar 11 UT, the 50 km diameter asteroid (1054) Forsytia will occult a 12.3 mag star in the constellation Libra for observers along a path across W Canada. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.88 mag to 16.10 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 19.150 seconds. This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 85 * date and approx. time of event: 2023 Mar 11, 10:30 - 2023 Mar 11, 11:14 * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2460014.95320925 * magnitude of target star: 12.25 * magnitude drop [mag]: 3.88 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 19.150 * Moon: 86 % sunlit, 21° distance * Sun: 116° distance * rough path description: W Canada The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 98 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.60 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 6.8 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- 0.016, +/- 0.008) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): (0.017", 0.002", 115°) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 2.6110 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of UCAC4 404-060982 by 1054 Forsytia on 2023 Mar 11 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude .. .. .. 80 0 0 .. .. .... .. .. .. ... .. .. ... .. .. -125 1 41 ... .. .. .... -128 16 49 79 0 0 11 13 6.7 1 155 -12 -125 51 31 -130 47 21 -123 3 34 -133 55 30 .... -126 15 45 78 0 0 11 13 4.8 2 157 -13 -124 5 53 -128 29 28 -121 34 59 -131 15 16 1.13 -124 43 12 77 0 0 11 13 1.3 3 159 -13 -122 45 32 -126 43 53 -120 28 16 -129 12 41 1.32 -123 32 6 76 0 0 11 12 56.2 4 160 -14 -121 44 17 -125 22 18 -119 38 11 -127 37 39 1.40 -122 37 31 75 0 0 11 12 49.6 5 160 -15 -120 57 54 -124 19 7 -119 1 7 -126 23 31 1.44 -121 56 0 74 0 0 11 12 41.6 6 161 -15 -120 23 18 -123 30 23 -118 34 26 -125 25 42 1.47 -121 25 2 73 0 0 11 12 32.2 7 162 -16 -119 58 14 -122 53 16 -118 16 11 -124 40 53 1.48 -121 2 42 72 0 0 11 12 21.4 8 162 -16 -119 41 2 -122 25 39 -118 4 53 -124 6 40 1.49 -120 47 34 71 0 0 11 12 9.2 9 162 -17 -119 30 22 -122 5 54 -117 59 24 -123 41 11 1.50 -120 38 28 70 0 0 11 11 55.5 10 162 -18 -119 25 12 -121 52 45 -117 58 49 -123 23 2 1.51 -120 34 31 69 0 0 11 11 40.5 11 162 -18 -119 24 44 -121 45 13 -118 2 25 -123 11 4 1.51 -120 35 0 68 0 0 11 11 24.2 12 162 -19 -119 28 20 -121 42 31 -118 9 39 -123 4 27 -1.51 -120 39 20 67 0 0 11 11 6.4 13 162 -20 -119 35 27 -121 44 1 -118 20 1 -123 2 26 -1.52 -120 47 3 66 0 0 11 10 47.3 14 161 -20 -119 45 40 -121 49 10 -118 33 11 -123 4 27 -1.52 -120 57 44 65 0 0 11 10 26.8 15 161 -21 -119 58 38 -121 57 33 -118 48 47 -123 10 1 -1.52 -121 11 6 64 0 0 11 10 4.9 15 161 -22 -120 14 2 -122 8 48 -119 6 36 -123 18 44 -1.52 -121 26 51 63 0 0 11 9 41.7 16 160 -23 -120 31 38 -122 22 40 -119 26 24 -123 30 17 -1.52 -121 44 46 62 0 0 11 9 17.1 17 160 -24 -120 51 16 -122 38 53 -119 48 0 -123 44 24 -1.52 -122 4 42 61 0 0 11 8 51.2 18 159 -24 -121 12 43 -122 57 14 -120 11 17 -124 0 52 -1.53 -122 26 27 60 0 0 11 8 23.9 19 158 -25 -121 35 53 -123 17 34 -120 36 5 -124 19 28 -1.53 -122 49 55 59 0 0 11 7 55.2 20 158 -26 -122 0 37 -123 39 45 -121 2 21 -124 40 4 -1.53 -123 14 59 58 0 0 11 7 25.2 21 157 -27 -122 26 52 -124 3 38 -121 29 58 -125 2 32 -1.53 -123 41 35 57 0 0 11 6 53.8 21 156 -28 -122 54 30 -124 29 9 -121 58 52 -125 26 46 -1.54 -124 9 37 56 0 0 11 6 21.0 22 156 -29 -123 23 31 -124 56 14 -122 29 1 -125 52 40 -1.54 -124 39 5 55 0 0 11 5 46.9 23 155 -30 -123 53 51 -125 24 49 -123 0 23 -126 20 11 -1.54 -125 9 54 54 0 0 11 5 11.4 24 154 -31 -124 25 27 -125 54 50 -123 32 55 -126 49 15 -1.55 -125 42 2 53 0 0 11 4 34.5 24 153 -32 -124 58 18 -126 26 16 -124 6 37 -127 19 51 -1.55 -126 15 31 52 0 0 11 3 56.3 25 152 -33 -125 32 24 -126 59 7 -124 41 28 -127 51 56 -1.56 -126 50 19 51 0 0 11 3 16.7 26 151 -34 -126 7 45 -127 33 22 -125 17 29 -128 25 31 -1.56 -127 26 26 50 0 0 11 2 35.7 26 150 -35 -126 44 22 -128 9 1 -125 54 41 -129 0 36 -1.57 -128 3 55 49 0 0 11 1 53.3 27 149 -36 -127 22 16 -128 46 4 -126 33 5 -129 37 11 -1.58 -128 42 46 48 0 0 11 1 9.5 27 148 -37 -128 1 27 -129 24 35 -127 12 42 -130 15 17 -1.58 -129 23 2 47 0 0 11 0 24.4 28 147 -38 -128 42 0 -130 4 35 -127 53 35 -130 54 59 -1.59 -130 4 46 46 0 0 10 59 37.8 28 145 -39 -129 23 56 -130 46 7 -128 35 48 -131 36 18 -1.60 -130 48 2 45 0 0 10 58 49.9 29 144 -40 -130 7 21 -131 29 16 -129 19 23 -132 19 19 -1.61 -131 32 55 44 0 0 10 58 0.5 29 143 -42 -130 52 18 -132 14 6 -130 4 26 -133 4 8 -1.62 -132 19 30 43 0 0 10 57 9.6 30 141 -43 -131 38 52 -133 0 43 -130 51 1 -133 50 49 -1.63 -133 7 54 42 0 0 10 56 17.4 30 140 -44 -132 27 11 -133 49 14 -131 39 15 -134 39 30 -1.64 -133 58 15 41 0 0 10 55 23.6 30 139 -45 -133 17 21 -134 39 47 -132 29 15 -135 30 21 -1.65 -134 50 42 40 0 0 10 54 28.3 30 137 -47 -134 9 32 -135 32 32 -133 21 9 -136 23 32 -1.66 -135 45 25 39 0 0 10 53 31.5 30 136 -48 -135 3 53 -136 27 41 -134 15 6 -137 19 14 -1.67 -136 42 38 38 0 0 10 52 33.2 31 134 -49 -136 0 36 -137 25 26 -135 11 18 -138 17 42 -1.68 -137 42 36 37 0 0 10 51 33.2 30 132 -51 -136 59 57 -138 26 5 -136 9 59 -139 19 16 -1.69 -138 45 37 36 0 0 10 50 31.6 30 131 -52 -138 2 11 -139 29 57 -137 11 23 -140 24 15 -1.71 -139 52 3 35 0 0 10 49 28.2 30 129 -54 -139 7 40 -140 37 26 -138 15 49 -141 33 7 -1.72 -141 2 22 34 0 0 10 48 23.0 30 127 -55 -140 16 48 -141 49 1 -139 23 41 -142 46 25 -1.73 -142 17 6 33 0 0 10 47 16.0 29 126 -57 -141 30 7 -143 5 22 -140 35 26 -144 4 53 -1.75 -143 37 1 32 0 0 10 46 6.8 29 124 -58 -142 48 15 -144 27 14 -141 51 40 -145 29 24 -1.76 -145 3 2 31 0 0 10 44 55.4 28 122 -60 -144 12 3 -145 55 44 -143 13 5 -147 1 15 -1.78 -146 36 25 30 0 0 10 43 41.6 27 120 -62 -145 42 37 -147 32 17 -144 40 41 -148 42 10 -1.79 -148 18 57 29 0 0 10 42 24.9 26 119 -63 -147 21 29 -149 19 0 -146 15 44 -150 34 44 -1.80 -150 13 16 28 0 0 10 41 4.9 25 117 -65 -149 10 53 -151 19 4 -148 0 5 -152 43 8 -1.82 -152 23 34 27 0 0 10 39 40.7 23 115 -66 -151 14 11 -153 37 50 -149 56 25 -155 14 43 -1.84 Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude -153 0 0 26 44 45 10 39 18.5 23 114 -67 26 14 38 27 15 24 25 39 15 27 52 45 -1.79 -154 0 0 26 21 4 10 38 43.2 22 113 -67 25 51 19 26 51 18 25 16 22 27 28 9 -1.81 -155 0 0 25 59 5 10 38 9.5 21 112 -68 25 29 41 26 28 57 24 55 8 27 5 20 -1.81 -156 0 0 25 38 46 10 37 37.3 21 112 -68 25 9 42 26 8 18 24 35 32 26 44 15 -1.81 -157 0 0 25 20 5 10 37 6.7 20 111 -68 24 51 20 25 49 18 24 17 30 26 24 50 -1.81 -158 0 0 25 3 0 10 36 37.5 19 110 -69 24 34 31 25 31 54 24 1 1 26 7 5 -1.80 -159 0 0 24 47 28 10 36 10.0 18 110 -69 24 19 15 25 16 6 23 46 3 25 50 56 -1.80 -160 0 0 24 33 26 10 35 43.9 17 109 -69 24 5 28 25 1 50 23 32 33 25 36 21 -1.80 -161 0 0 24 20 54 10 35 19.3 16 108 -69 23 53 9 24 49 4 23 20 29 25 23 17 -1.80 -162 0 0 24 9 49 10 34 56.2 15 108 -69 23 42 16 24 37 46 23 9 50 25 11 43 -1.80 -163 0 0 24 0 9 10 34 34.6 14 107 -69 23 32 48 24 27 54 23 0 34 25 1 37 -1.79 -164 0 0 23 51 53 10 34 14.4 13 107 -68 23 24 42 24 19 27 22 52 40 24 52 57 -1.79 -165 0 0 23 44 58 10 33 55.6 13 106 -68 23 17 56 24 12 23 22 46 5 24 45 41 -1.79 -166 0 0 23 39 24 10 33 38.3 12 106 -68 23 12 30 24 6 40 22 40 49 24 39 47 -1.79 -167 0 0 23 35 8 10 33 22.4 11 105 -67 23 8 22 24 2 16 22 36 49 24 35 13 -1.78 -168 0 0 23 32 10 10 33 7.9 10 105 -67 23 5 30 23 59 11 22 34 5 24 31 59 -1.78 -169 0 0 23 30 27 10 32 54.7 9 104 -66 23 3 53 23 57 22 22 32 34 24 30 3 -1.78 -170 0 0 23 29 59 10 32 43.0 8 104 -66 23 3 30 23 56 49 22 32 17 24 29 23 -1.79 -171 0 0 23 30 44 10 32 32.6 7 103 -65 23 4 20 23 57 30 22 33 12 24 29 59 -1.79 -172 0 0 23 32 42 10 32 23.5 6 103 -65 23 6 21 23 59 24 22 35 17 24 31 48 -1.80 -173 0 0 23 35 50 10 32 15.8 5 102 -64 23 9 32 24 2 29 22 38 31 24 34 50 -1.81 -174 0 0 23 40 9 10 32 9.3 4 102 -63 23 13 53 24 6 46 22 42 54 24 39 4 -1.83 -175 0 0 23 45 36 10 32 4.2 3 102 -63 23 19 22 24 12 12 22 48 25 24 44 28 -1.87 -176 0 0 23 52 12 10 32 0.4 2 101 -62 23 25 58 24 18 47 22 55 2 24 51 2 -1.95 -177 0 0 23 59 55 10 31 57.9 1 101 -61 23 33 41 24 26 29 23 2 45 24 58 45 -2.12 -178 0 0 24 8 44 10 31 56.6 0 100 -60 23 42 30 24 35 19 23 11 33 25 7 35 -3.02 Uncertainty in time = +/- 13 secs Prediction of 2023 Feb 15.9 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: UCAC4 404-060982 * constellation : Libra * BCRS position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 15 35 07.9951 DE: -09 13 14.915 * GCRS Astrometric position with proper motion and parallax to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 15 35 07.9952 DE: -09 13 14.915 * position source: Gaia DR3 * standard error: RA,DE [mas]: (0.100,0.100) * V mag [mag]: 12.3 * Diameter [mas]: 0.00 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (1054) Forsytia asteroid class: approx. diameter [km]: 50 approx. diameter ["]: 0.025 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.73590 asteroid position offset in RA [mas]: 0 asteroid position offset in DE [mas]: 0 * orbital information: orbit source: JPL#56 date of fit: 2023 Feb 07 source of used astrometry: MPC, JPL number of used observations: 0 number of rejected observations: 0 time covered by the observations: 1800 Jan 01 - 1800 Jan 01 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.017", 0.002", 115.017° remarks: * orbital elements for (1054)Forsytia : Mean anomaly = 200.4511726172 deg Arg. of pericenter = 295.8493616374 deg Long. of node = 85.7466091575 deg Inclination = 10.8699308850 deg Eccentricity = 0.1344033611 Semimajor axis = 2.9230254055 AU Perihelion dist = 2.5301609664 AU Mag: H = 10.46, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 60014.45312500 TDT (2023 Mar 11.4531) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- JPL#562023Feb07,19.15,2023,3,11,10.877022,-0.493277,0.704561,1.207187,0.845319,-0.005257,0.000822,0.000001,0.000000 -97.9037,-9.2994,19.36,-3.73,False UCAC4 404-060982,15.58555419,-9.2208096,0.00,12.25,0.00,0.0,0,,15.60645492,-9.2993916,3.88,0.00,0,0,0 1054,Forsytia,16.10,50.0,2.7359,0,0,0.262,2.72,,2.6,0 0,200.3618,2023,3,11,295.8494,85.7466,10.8699,0.13440,2.92303,2.53016,10.47,5.0,0.15 1.598,0.0173,0.0023,115,0.0151,Known errors,-1.00,-1,-1,-1 20230311_060982,59990.87 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2023 Feb 15, 20:47 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 stevepr@acm.org