IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (404) Arsinoe / 2UCAC 23518800 event on 2008 May 12, 19:55 UT Visible from Australia Summary ------- On 2008 May 12 UT, the 98 km diameter asteroid (404) Arsinoe will occult a 12.4 mag star in the constellation Capricornus for observers along a path across Australia. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.4 mag to 13.5 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 7.7 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 84 * date and approx. time of event: 2008 May 12, 19:47 - 2008 May 12, 19:57 UT * midpoint of event [JD]: 2454599.33058333 * magnitude of target star: 12.4 * magnitude drop [mag]: 1.4 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 7.7 * Moon: 58 % sunlit, 160° distance * Sun: 101° distance * rough path description: Australia The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 98 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.61 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 4.8 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .046 +/- .042) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .046", .042", 90° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 12.7225 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of 2UCAC 23518800 by 404 Arsinoe on 2008 May 12 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude 62 0 0 11 2 10 19 47 41 0 112 -61 10 33 33 .. .. .. 9 58 36 .. .. .. 63 0 0 10 38 25 19 47 41 1 112 -61 10 9 44 11 7 5 9 34 44 11 42 2 64 0 0 10 14 21 19 47 41 2 112 -61 9 45 38 10 43 4 9 10 35 11 18 5 65 0 0 9 50 1 19 47 42 3 112 -62 9 21 15 10 18 46 8 46 9 10 53 50 66 0 0 9 25 23 19 47 43 4 112 -62 8 56 35 9 54 11 8 21 26 10 29 18 67 0 0 9 0 30 19 47 43 5 113 -62 8 31 39 9 29 20 7 56 27 10 4 30 68 0 0 8 35 20 19 47 44 6 113 -62 8 6 27 9 4 13 7 31 12 9 39 26 69 0 0 8 9 56 19 47 45 8 113 -63 7 41 0 8 38 51 7 5 42 9 14 7 70 0 0 7 44 16 19 47 47 9 113 -63 7 15 18 8 13 14 6 39 57 8 48 33 71 0 0 7 18 23 19 47 48 10 113 -63 6 49 22 7 47 22 6 13 59 8 22 44 72 0 0 6 52 15 19 47 50 11 113 -63 6 23 13 7 21 17 5 47 46 7 56 41 73 0 0 6 25 54 19 47 52 12 113 -63 5 56 50 6 54 58 5 21 21 7 30 25 74 0 0 5 59 21 19 47 54 13 113 -63 5 30 15 6 28 27 4 54 43 7 3 56 75 0 0 5 32 36 19 47 56 14 114 -63 5 3 28 6 1 44 4 27 54 6 37 15 76 0 0 5 5 40 19 47 59 15 114 -63 4 36 30 5 34 49 4 0 54 6 10 23 77 0 0 4 38 32 19 48 1 16 114 -63 4 9 21 5 7 44 3 33 43 5 43 20 78 0 0 4 11 15 19 48 4 17 114 -63 3 42 2 4 40 28 3 6 22 5 16 6 79 0 0 3 43 49 19 48 7 18 114 -62 3 14 34 4 13 3 2 38 52 4 48 43 80 0 0 3 16 13 19 48 10 20 114 -62 2 46 57 3 45 29 2 11 13 4 21 10 81 0 0 2 48 30 19 48 13 21 114 -62 2 19 12 3 17 47 1 43 27 3 53 30 82 0 0 2 20 39 19 48 17 22 114 -61 1 51 20 2 49 57 1 15 34 3 25 42 83 0 0 1 52 42 19 48 21 23 114 -61 1 23 22 2 22 1 0 47 34 2 57 47 84 0 0 1 24 39 19 48 25 24 114 -61 0 55 18 1 53 59 0 19 29 2 29 46 85 0 0 0 56 31 19 48 29 25 114 -60 0 27 9 1 25 52 - 0 8 41 2 1 40 86 0 0 0 28 18 19 48 33 26 114 -60 - 0 1 4 0 57 40 - 0 36 55 1 33 29 87 0 0 0 0 2 19 48 37 27 114 -59 - 0 29 21 0 29 24 - 1 5 12 1 5 14 88 0 0 - 0 28 17 19 48 42 29 114 -59 - 0 57 40 0 1 6 - 1 33 32 0 36 56 89 0 0 - 0 56 38 19 48 47 30 114 -58 - 1 26 1 - 0 27 15 - 2 1 54 0 8 36 90 0 0 - 1 25 0 19 48 52 31 114 -58 - 1 54 24 - 0 55 37 - 2 30 16 - 0 19 46 91 0 0 - 1 53 22 19 48 57 32 114 -57 - 2 22 46 - 1 23 59 - 2 58 39 - 0 48 8 92 0 0 - 2 21 45 19 49 2 33 114 -56 - 2 51 9 - 1 52 21 - 3 27 1 - 1 16 31 93 0 0 - 2 50 6 19 49 7 34 114 -56 - 3 19 30 - 2 20 43 - 3 55 22 - 1 44 52 94 0 0 - 3 18 25 19 49 13 35 114 -55 - 3 47 48 - 2 49 2 - 4 23 41 - 2 13 12 95 0 0 - 3 46 42 19 49 19 36 114 -54 - 4 16 5 - 3 17 19 - 4 51 56 - 2 41 30 96 0 0 - 4 14 55 19 49 25 38 114 -54 - 4 44 17 - 3 45 33 - 5 20 8 - 3 9 44 97 0 0 - 4 43 3 19 49 31 39 114 -53 - 5 12 25 - 4 13 42 - 5 48 15 - 3 37 54 98 0 0 - 5 11 7 19 49 37 40 114 -52 - 5 40 28 - 4 41 47 - 6 16 17 - 4 5 59 99 0 0 - 5 39 5 19 49 43 41 113 -51 - 6 8 24 - 5 9 45 - 6 44 12 - 4 33 59 100 0 0 - 6 6 56 19 49 50 42 113 -51 - 6 36 14 - 5 37 37 - 7 12 1 - 5 1 53 101 0 0 - 6 34 39 19 49 56 43 113 -50 - 7 3 57 - 6 5 22 - 7 39 42 - 5 29 39 102 0 0 - 7 2 15 19 50 3 44 113 -49 - 7 31 31 - 6 32 59 - 8 7 14 - 5 57 17 103 0 0 - 7 29 41 19 50 10 45 113 -48 - 7 58 56 - 7 0 27 - 8 34 38 - 6 24 47 104 0 0 - 7 56 58 19 50 17 46 113 -47 - 8 26 11 - 7 27 46 - 9 1 51 - 6 52 8 105 0 0 - 8 24 5 19 50 24 48 113 -47 - 8 53 16 - 7 54 54 - 9 28 54 - 7 19 18 106 0 0 - 8 51 0 19 50 32 49 112 -46 - 9 20 10 - 8 21 51 - 9 55 45 - 7 46 17 107 0 0 - 9 17 44 19 50 39 50 112 -45 - 9 46 52 - 8 48 37 -10 22 25 - 8 13 5 108 0 0 - 9 44 15 19 50 46 51 112 -44 -10 13 21 - 9 15 10 -10 48 52 - 8 39 41 109 0 0 -10 10 33 19 50 54 52 112 -43 -10 39 37 - 9 41 30 -11 15 5 - 9 6 4 110 0 0 -10 36 38 19 51 2 53 112 -42 -11 5 39 -10 7 37 -11 41 4 - 9 32 13 111 0 0 -11 2 28 19 51 9 54 111 -41 -11 31 27 -10 33 29 -12 6 49 - 9 58 8 112 0 0 -11 28 3 19 51 17 55 111 -41 -11 56 59 -10 59 6 -12 32 19 -10 23 48 113 0 0 -11 53 22 19 51 25 56 111 -40 -12 22 16 -11 24 28 -12 57 33 -10 49 13 114 0 0 -12 18 25 19 51 33 57 111 -39 -12 47 17 -11 49 34 -13 22 30 -11 14 21 115 0 0 -12 43 11 19 51 41 59 110 -38 -13 12 0 -12 14 22 -13 47 11 -11 39 14 116 0 0 -13 7 40 19 51 49 60 110 -37 -13 36 27 -12 38 54 -14 11 34 -12 3 49 117 0 0 -13 31 51 19 51 58 61 110 -36 -14 0 35 -13 3 8 -14 35 39 -12 28 6 118 0 0 -13 55 44 19 52 6 62 109 -35 -14 24 25 -13 27 4 -14 59 25 -12 52 5 119 0 0 -14 19 18 19 52 14 63 109 -34 -14 47 56 -13 50 41 -15 22 53 -13 15 45 120 0 0 -14 42 33 19 52 23 64 109 -34 -15 11 8 -14 13 58 -15 46 1 -13 39 7 121 0 0 -15 5 28 19 52 31 65 108 -33 -15 34 0 -14 36 56 -16 8 49 -14 2 8 122 0 0 -15 28 3 19 52 40 66 108 -32 -15 56 32 -14 59 34 -16 31 18 -14 24 50 123 0 0 -15 50 17 19 52 48 67 108 -31 -16 18 43 -15 21 52 -16 53 25 -14 47 11 124 0 0 -16 12 11 19 52 57 68 107 -30 -16 40 34 -15 43 48 -17 15 12 -15 9 11 125 0 0 -16 33 43 19 53 5 69 107 -29 -17 2 3 -16 5 23 -17 36 37 -15 30 50 126 0 0 -16 54 53 19 53 14 70 106 -28 -17 23 10 -16 26 37 -17 57 40 -15 52 8 127 0 0 -17 15 42 19 53 23 71 106 -27 -17 43 55 -16 47 29 -18 18 22 -16 13 3 128 0 0 -17 36 8 19 53 31 72 105 -26 -18 4 18 -17 7 58 -18 38 41 -16 33 36 129 0 0 -17 56 12 19 53 40 73 105 -25 -18 24 19 -17 28 5 -18 58 38 -16 53 47 130 0 0 -18 15 52 19 53 49 74 104 -25 -18 43 56 -17 47 49 -19 18 11 -17 13 35 131 0 0 -18 35 10 19 53 58 75 104 -24 -19 3 11 -18 7 10 -19 37 22 -17 32 59 132 0 0 -18 54 4 19 54 6 77 103 -23 -19 22 2 -18 26 7 -19 56 9 -17 52 1 133 0 0 -19 12 35 19 54 15 78 102 -22 -19 40 30 -18 44 41 -20 14 33 -18 10 39 134 0 0 -19 30 42 19 54 24 79 102 -21 -19 58 34 -19 2 51 -20 32 33 -18 28 53 135 0 0 -19 48 25 19 54 33 80 101 -20 -20 16 13 -19 20 37 -20 50 9 -18 46 43 136 0 0 -20 5 44 19 54 41 81 100 -19 -20 33 29 -19 37 59 -21 7 21 -19 4 8 137 0 0 -20 22 39 19 54 50 82 99 -18 -20 50 21 -19 54 57 -21 24 9 -19 21 10 138 0 0 -20 39 9 19 54 59 82 97 -17 -21 6 48 -20 11 30 -21 40 32 -19 37 47 139 0 0 -20 55 14 19 55 8 83 96 -17 -21 22 50 -20 27 39 -21 56 31 -19 53 59 140 0 0 -21 10 55 19 55 16 84 94 -16 -21 38 28 -20 43 23 -22 12 5 -20 9 46 141 0 0 -21 26 11 19 55 25 85 91 -15 -21 53 41 -20 58 41 -22 27 14 -20 25 9 142 0 0 -21 41 2 19 55 34 86 86 -14 -22 8 29 -21 13 35 -22 41 59 -20 40 6 143 0 0 -21 55 28 19 55 42 87 79 -13 -22 22 52 -21 28 4 -22 56 19 -20 54 38 144 0 0 -22 9 29 19 55 51 88 64 -12 -22 36 50 -21 42 8 -23 10 13 -21 8 45 145 0 0 -22 23 5 19 56 0 88 29 -11 -22 50 23 -21 55 46 -23 23 43 -21 22 27 146 0 0 -22 36 15 19 56 8 88 339 -11 -23 3 31 -22 8 59 -23 36 47 -21 35 43 147 0 0 -22 49 0 19 56 17 87 314 -10 -23 16 13 -22 21 47 -23 49 26 -21 48 34 148 0 0 -23 1 20 19 56 25 87 303 -9 -23 28 30 -22 34 9 -24 1 40 -22 1 0 149 0 0 -23 13 14 19 56 34 86 297 -8 -23 40 22 -22 46 6 -24 13 29 -22 12 59 150 0 0 -23 24 43 19 56 42 85 294 -7 -23 51 49 -22 57 37 -24 24 53 -22 24 34 151 0 0 -23 35 46 19 56 51 84 291 -6 -24 2 50 -23 8 43 -24 35 51 -22 35 42 152 0 0 -23 46 24 19 56 59 83 289 -5 -24 13 25 -23 19 23 -24 46 23 -22 46 25 153 0 0 -23 56 36 19 57 8 82 288 -5 -24 23 35 -23 29 37 -24 56 31 -22 56 42 154 0 0 -24 6 23 19 57 16 81 286 -4 -24 33 20 -23 39 26 -25 6 13 -23 6 34 155 0 0 -24 15 44 19 57 24 80 285 -3 -24 42 39 -23 48 50 -25 15 30 -23 16 0 156 0 0 -24 24 40 19 57 32 79 284 -2 -24 51 33 -23 57 47 -25 24 21 -23 25 0 157 0 0 -24 33 10 19 57 41 78 283 -1 -25 0 1 -24 6 20 -25 32 47 -23 33 34 158 0 0 -24 41 15 19 57 49 78 283 0 -25 8 4 -24 14 26 -25 40 48 -23 41 43 Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs [Prediction of 2008 Mar 31.0] Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: 2UCAC 23518800 * constellation : Capricornus * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 21 01 32.9451 DE: -21 20 04.656 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .039, .040 ) * V mag [mag]: 12.4 * B mag [mag]: 0.0 * Apparent position with proper motion RA(deg): 315.5112344298 DE(deg): -21.3014701536 * Equation of equinoxes (radians) : 0.000041139048475 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (404) Arsinoe approx. diameter [km]: 98 approx. diameter ["]: .069 distance from Earth [AU]: 1.95200 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2008 Feb 16 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 858 number of rejected observations: 49 time covered by the observations: 1909 Nov 06 - 2007 Jun 07 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.024, 0.013, 89° remarks: * orbital elements for (404) Arsinoe : Mean anomaly = 52.49362708 deg Arg. of pericenter = 121.17998703 deg Long. of node = 92.67402892 deg Inclination = 14.11548277 deg Eccentricity = 0.19879291 Semimajor axis = 2.59519444 AU Perihelion dist = 2.07928818 AU Mag: H = 9.10, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 54598.83100000 TDT (2008 May 12.831) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2008 May 12 404 Arsinoe 19h 56.0m UT 12.4 21 1 32.945-21 20 4.662UCAC 23518800 0.0 13.5 98 7.7 1.952 2.256 -7.19 145.4216 -21.333 -119.92 18.39 19.9340 -0.00381 -0.01773 7.00162 -1.59477 -0.00513 -0.00144 2000 50.4117312008 5 4.00000121.179987 92.674029 14.1154830.19879291 2.5951944 2.0792882 9.0 5.00.15 RATE 2.3574860 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.046 0.042 90 1.61 0.042 0 54556.5020080512_518800 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2008 Mar 31, 04:44 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org